
Djibouti : Le risque d’insolvabilité de la République de Djibouti pressentie en 2020 inquiète de plus en plus les institutions internationales.

Le risque de crédit d’un État dépend de facteurs économiques, financiers, politiques et institutionnels. La liquidité disponible est d’autant plus forte que les investisseurs internationaux ont une faible aversion au risque et disposent de capitaux importants à placer. Six types de risque sont susceptibles de mettre en péril la solvabilité d’un État à moyen ou même à court terme : la catastrophe naturelle, la menace géopolitique, l’instabilité politique ou institutionnelle, la fragilité du système économique, le caractère insoutenable du régime de change et le poids excessif des dettes publique et privée.
Pour Djibouti, c’est l’instabilité politique, la corruption excessive, la fragilité du système économique et le poids excessif des dettes publique et privée.
Le 4 février 2020, le ministre du Budget de Djibouti, Abdoulkarim Aden Cher, discutait de propositions visant à augmenter les taxes sur divers produits de base importés. Les augmentations d’impôts sont considérées comme nécessaires pour réduire les déficits budgétaires annuels importants estimé à 14,2 % du PIB en 2019, financé principalement par les emprunts, et les aides extérieures et pour faire face aux coûts du service de la dette extérieure, qui est passée de 96,8 % du PIB en 2016 à 121,1 % en 2019, selon les chiffres officiels. La pauvreté demeure préoccupante avec un taux estimé à 35,8 %. La répartition des revenus est inégalitaire avec un coefficient de Gini de 0,42 et le taux de chômage est estimé à 39,4 %.
Bien que le déficit budgétaire devrait diminuer sensiblement en raison de la réduction des dépenses pour les deux principaux projets d’infrastructure de Djibouti — une voie ferrée et un aqueduc — au cours de la période 2019-20, nous estimons que le fardeau de la dette extérieure est probablement plus important, car les grands projets financés par les banques politiques chinoises utilisent des arrangements circulaires non soumis au contrôle du Club de Paris. Une pression budgétaire supplémentaire provient du fait que le gouvernement devra probablement sauvegarder des niveaux continus d’investissement direct étranger pour financer son déficit des comptes courants en payant une importante facture de compensation de 385 millions de dollars – représentant un peu plus de la moitié du budget annuel de Djibouti – qui a été ordonnée par la Cour d’arbitrage international de Londres suite à l’annulation du contrat de Dubaï Ports World pour l’exploitation du terminal à conteneurs de Doraleh.
Il est très peu probable qu’une augmentation des droits d’importation pour les denrées alimentaires de base soit appliquée dans son intégralité. En effet, le président Ismail Omar Guelleh perçoit probablement que cela motiverait une augmentation de la fréquence des manifestations antigouvernementales avant l’élection présidentielle de 2021. En outre, le président Guelleh serait probablement réticent à réduire les revenus obtenus par les sociétés d’importation monopolisées par son réseau de patronage.
Dans l’ensemble, les discussions indiquent que les recettes fiscales doivent encore être augmentées, très probablement en prélevant des demandes arbitraires d’impôt sur les sociétés et de redevances contre les opérateurs du secteur logistique et portuaire, les entreprises d’État chinoises étant désormais moins susceptibles de bénéficier d’un traitement spécial. Les autres cibles probables sont les projets européens d’énergie renouvelable et les autres opérateurs de télécommunications. Plus précisément, nos sources rapportent que le ministère de l’Énergie tente d’accélérer le développement du projet de parc éolien Ghoubet Djibouti, d’un montant de 250 millions de dollars. Si le projet n’est pas opérationnel dans les six mois, il est probable qu’il soit annulé et que de nouveaux appels d’offres soient lancés à des entreprises chinoises ou turques.
Par ailleurs, le gouvernement djiboutien compte encourager les exportateurs d’engrais à utiliser le corridor de transport Tadjourah-Balho inauguré en décembre 2019, en vue d’augmenter les recettes douanières perçues à la frontière avec l’Éthiopie. Si l’entreprise publique de télécommunications est privatisée dans un nouveau cadre juridique finalisé à la mi-2019, cela indiquera que l’équilibre fiscal est de plus en plus insoutenable.
Hassan Cher
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